Glossary

A working glossary of every term you need to read, trade, or talk about prediction markets — from YES share to CFTC to UMA oracle.

Updated

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Glossary

Implied probability

The probability of an event happening as inferred from its market price — for binary contracts, simply the YES price.

Glossary

NO share

A contract that pays $1 if a prediction-market question resolves NO, and $0 if it resolves YES.

Glossary

YES share

A contract that pays $1 if a prediction-market question resolves YES, and $0 if it resolves NO.