YES share
Last reviewed 2026-08-07
YES share — definition
A contract that pays $1 if a prediction-market question resolves YES, and $0 if it resolves NO.
A YES share is one half of a binary prediction-market contract. Buying it at, say, 40¢ means you'll make 60¢ of profit if the event happens, and lose your 40¢ if it doesn't.
Because the maximum payout is $1, the price of a YES share is widely interpreted as the implied probability the market assigns to the event. A 40¢ YES share roughly means a 40% market-implied chance.
Learn more: How prediction markets work
See also
Frequently asked questions
Is a YES share the same as betting yes?
Economically, yes. You're paying for the right to a $1 payout conditional on the event resolving YES.
Can the price go above $1?
No. The maximum payout caps the price at $1. Trading above $1 would be a guaranteed loss.
Sources & further reading
- CFTC — Event contracts explainedU.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Kalshi — how prices and settlement workKalshi
- UMA Optimistic Oracle documentationUMA Protocol
Last reviewed 2026-08-07 · CollegePredictionMarkets.com