Explainers
Plain-English deep dives on how prediction markets actually work, where they're legal, and which venue fits which trader.
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Read explainer →How prediction markets work
Prediction markets let you buy shares in YES/NO outcomes of real-world events. The price is the probability. Here's how every part of it actually works.
Read explainer →Event contracts explained: what they are and how they work
An event contract is a CFTC-regulated derivative that pays $1 if a real-world event happens and $0 if it doesn't. Here's the legal definition, how they trade, and why they exist.
Read explainer →Kalshi vs Polymarket: which prediction market should you use?
A direct comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket across legality, fees, market selection, and payout speed. Includes a recommendation by use case.
Read explainer →Is Kalshi legal in your state? A 2026 guide
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, legal in almost every US state. Here's the federal framework, the state exceptions, and what changes if you move.
Read explainer →Is Polymarket legal? The US, EU, and global picture
Polymarket is legal in most of the world but restricts US users under a 2022 CFTC settlement. Here's the actual legal status — and what changed in 2024–2026.
Read explainer →Kalshi fees explained: maker, taker, and withdrawals
Kalshi charges a tiered trading fee based on contract price and side. Here's the full schedule, how it compares to Polymarket, and how to minimize what you pay.
Read explainer →Polymarket fees: trading, gas, and the real cost of a position
Polymarket charges 0% on trades — but you pay Polygon gas on every deposit, withdrawal, and on/off-ramp. Here's what a round-trip really costs.
Read explainer →Kalshi review (2026): is it worth using?
An independent review of Kalshi — the CFTC-regulated prediction market. We cover signup, market selection, fees, payout speed, and who should actually use it.
Read explainer →Polymarket review (2026): on-chain prediction market verdict
Polymarket is the biggest on-chain prediction market — wide selection, 0% trading fees, no KYC. The catch: it geo-blocks US users. Full review for 2026.
Read explainer →PredictIt review (2026): the small, legal US prediction market
PredictIt is the academic-research prediction market with deep political coverage and a strict $850-per-market position cap. Full review for 2026.
Read explainer →Manifold Markets review (2026): the best free prediction market
Manifold Markets uses 'mana' — free play-money — and lets anyone create or trade in any market. Best sandbox for learning forecasting. Full 2026 review.
Read explainer →How to use Kalshi: a step-by-step beginner's guide
A walkthrough of how to sign up for Kalshi, fund your account, place your first YES/NO trade, and withdraw — written for first-time prediction market users.
Read explainer →How to use Polymarket: a step-by-step beginner's guide
Walkthrough of how to create a Polymarket account, fund it with USDC on Polygon, place YES/NO trades, and withdraw — for first-time on-chain traders.
Read explainer →How to deposit money on Kalshi: ACH, debit, and wire compared
Three ways to fund a Kalshi account: ACH (free, 1–3 days), debit card (instant, small fee), and wire (large amounts). Step-by-step instructions for 2026.
Read explainer →The best prediction market apps in 2026
A ranked, opinionated guide to the prediction market apps worth using in 2026 — covering Kalshi, Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, and others. Includes the right pick by use case.
Read explainer →Kalshi alternatives: every real option in 2026
The best Kalshi alternatives in 2026 — Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold Markets, and the on-chain newcomers. Picked by use case, with the trade-offs.
Read explainer →Election prediction markets: where to trade and what they mean
Election prediction markets aggregate real-money bets into probabilities for political outcomes. Where they're traded in 2026, how to read them, and the catches.
Read explainer →Prediction market arbitrage: how it works, how it doesn't
Arbitrage in prediction markets — across venues, across related contracts, and across no-vig pricing. What works in 2026, what costs more than it earns.
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