Robinhood Prediction Markets: How They Work in 2026

Published 2026-06-20 · Last reviewed 2026-09-18

Catie Di StefanoFounder & Editor-in-Chief

Reviewed by Catie Di Stefano

TL;DR

Robinhood offers event contracts through a CFTC-regulated partner (KalshiEX), inside the Robinhood app.
You buy Yes/No contracts that settle at $1 or $0 — the price is the implied probability.
The market menu is narrower than Kalshi or Polymarket; for more events, trade those directly.

New to this? Read this first

Prediction markets price events in cents, not odds. Here is the vocabulary used on this page, in plain English.

Price = probability: A contract that pays $1 trading at 12¢ means the market thinks there's a 12% chance.
YES / NO share: YES pays $1 if it happens. NO pays $1 if it doesn't. You can never lose more than you paid.
Implied chance: Just the price read as a percentage. A contract at 14¢ implies a 14% chance.
Vig: A built-in margin some venues charge. On prediction markets you pay the spread and fees instead.
Liquidity: How much money is in the market. More money means you can get in and out at the price you see.

Robinhood prediction markets let you trade event contracts — Yes/No bets on real-world outcomes — without leaving the Robinhood app. They're powered by a CFTC-regulated exchange partner, so they sit in the same legal category as Kalshi.

How they work

Each market is a question with a clear resolution. You buy a contract priced between $0.01 and $0.99. If the event happens, the contract settles at $1; if it doesn't, it's worth $0. The price is the market's implied probability — a contract trading at $0.45 means the crowd prices a 45% chance.

Regulation and fees

Robinhood lists these contracts through a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, the same federal framework behind Kalshi's legality. Trading fees apply per contract and can eat into thin-margin trades — always check the fee shown at order time.

The catch: a narrow menu

Convenience is the draw, but Robinhood's event selection is far smaller than dedicated venues. If you want the full US-regulated menu, trade on Kalshi directly; for the widest set of markets anywhere, use Polymarket.

Where to trade these markets

PolymarketDeposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!Widest market menu · iOS appClaim offer →Rebet100% purchase match up to $100!Mobile only · code COLLEGEPMClaim offer →KalshiTrade $25 and Get $25!US-regulated (CFTC) · 47 states + D.C.Claim offer →

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

How it compares

See our Kalshi vs Robinhood breakdown, or the broader Kalshi vs Polymarket comparison. New to the concept? Start with prediction markets explained.

Getting started elsewhere

Most serious traders pair Robinhood with a dedicated exchange. US users typically open Kalshi for the regulated menu and Polymarket for selection.

Price → probability → payout

Contract price in cents (e.g. 14)Amount you put in ($)

Implied chance: 14.0%
Contracts: 143
Pays back: $142.86
Profit if right: $122.86

A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. Every contract you buy at this price pays $1 — the cheaper the price, the less likely the market thinks it is.

Your first trade, step by step

Fund a small balanceOpen an account, verify your ID, and deposit $10–$20 by debit or ACH. You must be 18+ and in an eligible state.
Find the marketSearch the event by team, player or headline. Check the price and the volume — thin markets move a lot on small orders.
Read the price as a probabilityA 23¢ YES contract means the market gives it about a 23% chance. If you think it is higher than that, YES is the value side.
Place a limit orderEnter the price you want rather than taking the market. You buy shares, not a bet slip — the most you can lose is what you paid.
Decide your exitYou can sell any time before the event resolves, or hold to settlement where each winning share pays $1.

Ready to try it: open Polymarket. 18+, eligible states only. Trade what you can afford to lose.

Sources & further reading

Robinhood prediction marketsRobinhood
Event Contracts — CFTC overviewU.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)

Frequently asked questions

Does Robinhood have prediction markets?

Yes. Robinhood offers event contracts (prediction markets) inside its app, listed through a CFTC-regulated exchange partner. You can trade Yes/No contracts on events like elections, economic data, and sports outcomes.

How do Robinhood prediction markets work?

You buy a contract priced between $0.01 and $0.99. If the event resolves in your favor, each contract pays $1; if not, it's worth $0. The price reflects the market's implied probability — a contract at $0.60 implies a 60% chance.

Are Robinhood prediction markets legal?

They run on a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange, the same federal framework Kalshi uses, so they're legal in most US states. Availability of specific categories (like sports) varies by state.

How are Robinhood prediction markets taxed?

Event-contract gains are generally treated as taxable income, and you'll receive tax forms for your activity. Rules can differ from stocks — consult a CPA for your situation.

Robinhood vs Kalshi vs Polymarket — which is best?

Robinhood is convenient if you already use the app, but the event menu is limited. Kalshi offers the full CFTC-regulated US menu; Polymarket has the widest selection overall. See the comparison links below.

What does the price actually mean?

A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. A contract at 23¢ means roughly a 23% chance, and $1 buys about 4.3 shares.

How much money do I need to start?

You can place a real trade with $10–$20. Contracts are priced in cents, so a $20 balance buys dozens of shares on a cheap market. Start small until you have seen a position settle.