PredictIt review (2026): the small, legal US market
Published May 22, 2026 · Last updated: September 18, 2026
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Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
TL;DR
- PredictIt operates under a CFTC no-action letter granted to Victoria University of Wellington.
- Strict limits: $850 invested per market, 5,000 traders per market.
- Best-in-class political coverage; weak everywhere else.
Kalshi · Trade $25 and Get $25!
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Claim on Kalshi (opens in a new tab)
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
Last checked October 21, 2026
New to this? Read this first
Prediction markets price events in cents, not odds. Here is the vocabulary used on this page, in plain English.
- Price = probability
- A contract that pays $1 trading at 12¢ means the market thinks there's a 12% chance.
- YES / NO share
- YES pays $1 if it happens. NO pays $1 if it doesn't. You can never lose more than you paid.
- Implied chance
- Just the price read as a percentage. A contract at 14¢ implies a 14% chance.
- Vig
- A built-in margin some venues charge. On prediction markets you pay the spread and fees instead.
- Liquidity
- How much money is in the market. More money means you can get in and out at the price you see.
PredictIt is the dorm-room prediction market: tiny position caps, deep political coverage, and a regulatory cliffhanger that won't quit.
PredictIt scorecard 2.2 / 5
| App quality | 2/5 | Web-only, dated interface; no native mobile apps. |
|---|---|---|
| Fees | 1/5 | 10% on profits plus 5% on withdrawals — the category's highest. |
| Market selection | 2/5 | Deep on US politics, almost nothing else. |
| Payout speed | 3/5 | Standard ACH withdrawals, minus the 5% fee. |
| Legal/trust | 3/5 | US-legal under a CFTC no-action letter clouded by litigation. |
The headline verdict
PredictIt is a niche venue worth knowing about, not a primary trading platform. The $850-per-market cap means it can't be your main book. But for certain political markets — congressional control, presidential primaries, individual Senate races — PredictIt has been the canonical prediction-market venue for a decade.
Funding our test account by ACH took the usual couple of business days, and we hit the $850 position ceiling on a single Senate market almost immediately — a hard reminder that this is a research venue, not a place to trade size.
What's good
- Legality. US-legal under a CFTC no-action letter; PredictIt accepts US users without geo-restriction.
- Political market depth. Long-running coverage of US elections, individual races, and policy outcomes — often listed before Kalshi catches up.
- Resolution track record. Years of clean, timely settlements on political contracts.
- USD funding. Standard ACH and debit-card funding.
What's bad
- $850 cap per market. Hard limit; you cannot scale beyond it.
- 10% profit fee + 5% withdrawal fee. The highest fee structure in the category.
- Web-only. No native mobile apps.
- Limited market types. Almost exclusively political. No sports, no crypto, no admissions.
- Regulatory uncertainty. The CFTC moved to revoke the no-action letter in 2022; PredictIt's continued operation is contingent on ongoing litigation.
Who should use PredictIt
Political junkies trading small. Researchers studying market-based forecasting. Anyone who wants exposure to a specific congressional race that hasn't been listed on Kalshi yet.
Who should not
Anyone trading real size. Anyone who needs low fees. Anyone whose interest is non-political markets.
Price → probability → payout
Contract price in cents (e.g. 14)Amount you put in ($)- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Contracts
- 143
- Pays back
- $142.86
- Profit if right
- $122.86
A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. Every contract you buy at this price pays $1 — the cheaper the price, the less likely the market thinks it is.
Your first trade, step by step
- Fund a small balanceOpen an account, verify your ID, and deposit $10–$20 by debit or ACH. You must be 18+ and in an eligible state.
- Find the marketSearch the event by team, player or headline. Check the price and the volume — thin markets move a lot on small orders.
- Read the price as a probabilityA 23¢ YES contract means the market gives it about a 23% chance. If you think it is higher than that, YES is the value side.
- Place a limit orderEnter the price you want rather than taking the market. You buy shares, not a bet slip — the most you can lose is what you paid.
- Decide your exitYou can sell any time before the event resolves, or hold to settlement where each winning share pays $1.
Ready to try it: open Kalshi (opens in a new tab). 18+, eligible states only. Trade what you can afford to lose.
Sources & further reading
- PredictIt — official sitePredictIt
- CFTC No-Action Letter 14-130 (PredictIt / Victoria University) (opens in a new tab)CFTC
Related reading
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Frequently asked questions
Is PredictIt legal in the US?
Available to eligible residents (as of October 3, 2026); check current state rules. PredictIt operates under a long-standing CFTC no-action letter granted to Victoria University of Wellington for academic research. The CFTC moved to revoke it in 2022; ongoing court actions have kept PredictIt running.
What is PredictIt's position limit?
$850 of total investment per market and 5,000 unique traders per market. These caps are the trade-off for the no-action letter status.
What are PredictIt's fees?
10% on profits and 5% on withdrawals. By far the highest fees in the category — a deliberate constraint of the research-exemption model.
Is PredictIt better than Kalshi?
Only for niche political markets that Kalshi hasn't listed. For everything else — fees, scale, mobile app, market selection — Kalshi is better.
What does the price actually mean?
A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. A contract at 23¢ means roughly a 23% chance, and $1 buys about 4.3 shares.
How much money do I need to start?
You can place a real trade with $10–$20. Contracts are priced in cents, so a $20 balance buys dozens of shares on a cheap market. Start small until you have seen a position settle.
21+ · T&Cs apply · Terms
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.
