How to Bet on March Madness with Prediction Markets

Published 2026-06-16 · Last reviewed 2026-09-18

Catie Di StefanoFounder & Editor-in-Chief

Reviewed by Catie Di Stefano

TL;DR

On prediction markets you buy contracts on a team to win — the price is its implied probability.
Kalshi (US-regulated) and Polymarket (widest menu) both list NCAA Tournament markets.
Live odds shift with each round; buy early for better prices on a contender.

New to this? Read this first

Prediction markets price events in cents, not odds. Here is the vocabulary used on this page, in plain English.

Price = probability: A contract that pays $1 trading at 12¢ means the market thinks there's a 12% chance.
YES / NO share: YES pays $1 if it happens. NO pays $1 if it doesn't. You can never lose more than you paid.
Implied chance: Just the price read as a percentage. A contract at 14¢ implies a 14% chance.
Vig: A built-in margin some venues charge. On prediction markets you pay the spread and fees instead.
Liquidity: How much money is in the market. More money means you can get in and out at the price you see.

Betting on March Madness through prediction markets is simple: you buy a contract on a team to win, and the price you pay is the market's implied probability. Win, and each contract pays $1. Here's how to do it.

Step 1: Pick a platform

US traders usually start on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) or Polymarket (widest market menu). Both list NCAA Tournament winner markets during the season. New to the concept? Read prediction markets explained first.

Step 2: Fund and find the market

Deposit, then search for the "2026 NCAA Tournament Winner" (or similar) market. You'll see each team listed with a price between $0.01 and $0.99 — that's its implied chance of winning.

Step 3: Buy your contract

Buy Yes contracts on the team you favor. You can hold to resolution or sell mid-tournament if the price rises. Prices move with every round, so timing matters.

● Live on Polymarket

Live NCAA Tournament winner odds

Odds update live · Deposit $10, get a $50 bonus with code COLLEGEPM

Between tournaments the same steps work on any college market — right now that means college football. See the college football markets hub for live boards you can trade today.

Where to trade these markets

PolymarketDeposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!Widest market menu · iOS appClaim offer →ProphetXTrade $50, Get $75!Sports only · CFTC-regulated · no house marginClaim offer →Rebet100% purchase match up to $100!Mobile only · code COLLEGEPMClaim offer →KalshiTrade $25 and Get $25!US-regulated (CFTC) · 47 states + D.C.Claim offer →

18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.

18+ only. New traders only. Offer terms are set by ProphetX and may change. Event contract trading involves risk, including loss of the funds you commit. ProphetX is a CFTC-regulated designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization. Not available in all states.

Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/500. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information.

21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Tips for better prices

Buy contenders early, before they become favorites — that's when prices are lowest. Spread across a few teams to manage risk, and never stake more than you can afford to lose.

See our full March Madness 2026 predictions or start trading on Kalshi.

Price → probability → payout

Contract price in cents (e.g. 14)Amount you put in ($)

Implied chance: 14.0%
Contracts: 143
Pays back: $142.86
Profit if right: $122.86

A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. Every contract you buy at this price pays $1 — the cheaper the price, the less likely the market thinks it is.

Your first trade, step by step

Fund a small balanceOpen an account, verify your ID, and deposit $10–$20 by debit or ACH. You must be 18+ and in an eligible state.
Find the marketSearch the event by team, player or headline. Check the price and the volume — thin markets move a lot on small orders.
Read the price as a probabilityA 23¢ YES contract means the market gives it about a 23% chance. If you think it is higher than that, YES is the value side.
Place a limit orderEnter the price you want rather than taking the market. You buy shares, not a bet slip — the most you can lose is what you paid.
Decide your exitYou can sell any time before the event resolves, or hold to settlement where each winning share pays $1.

Ready to try it: open Polymarket. 18+, eligible states only. Trade what you can afford to lose.

Sources & further reading

Frequently asked questions

How do I bet on March Madness with prediction markets?

Open an account on a prediction market like Kalshi or Polymarket, fund it, find the NCAA Tournament winner market, and buy a Yes contract on the team you think will win. If they win, each contract pays $1.

What's the difference between prediction markets and a sportsbook?

A sportsbook sets odds and takes the other side of your bet. A prediction market is an exchange where prices are set by traders — the price of a contract is the crowd's implied probability, and you can sell before the event resolves.

Where can I bet on March Madness legally?

Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and available in most US states. Polymarket has the widest market menu. Rebet is a mobile-first option in 40 states plus D.C. Always check availability in your state.

When should I buy March Madness contracts?

Prices move with every result. Buying a contender early — before they're a favorite — usually means a lower price and bigger upside if they advance.

What does the price actually mean?

A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. A contract at 23¢ means roughly a 23% chance, and $1 buys about 4.3 shares.

How much money do I need to start?

You can place a real trade with $10–$20. Contracts are priced in cents, so a $20 balance buys dozens of shares on a cheap market. Start small until you have seen a position settle.