How to Bet on March Madness with Prediction Markets
Published 2026-06-16 · Last reviewed 2026-06-29
TL;DR
- On prediction markets you buy contracts on a team to win — the price is its implied probability.
- Kalshi (US-regulated) and Polymarket (widest menu) both list NCAA Tournament markets.
- Live odds shift with each round; buy early for better prices on a contender.
Betting on March Madness through prediction markets is simple: you buy a contract on a team to win, and the price you pay is the market's implied probability. Win, and each contract pays $1. Here's how to do it.
Step 1: Pick a platform
US traders usually start on Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) or Polymarket (widest market menu). Both list NCAA Tournament winner markets during the season. New to the concept? Read prediction markets explained first.
Step 2: Fund and find the market
Deposit, then search for the "2026 NCAA Tournament Winner" (or similar) market. You'll see each team listed with a price between $0.01 and $0.99 — that's its implied chance of winning.
Step 3: Buy your contract
Buy Yes contracts on the team you favor. You can hold to resolution or sell mid-tournament if the price rises. Prices move with every round, so timing matters.
● Live on Polymarket
Live NCAA Tournament winner odds
Where to trade these markets
Tips for better prices
Buy contenders early, before they become favorites — that's when prices are lowest. Spread across a few teams to manage risk, and never stake more than you can afford to lose.
See our full March Madness 2026 predictions or start trading on Kalshi.
Frequently asked questions
How do I bet on March Madness with prediction markets?
Open an account on a prediction market like Kalshi or Polymarket, fund it, find the NCAA Tournament winner market, and buy a Yes contract on the team you think will win. If they win, each contract pays $1.
What's the difference between prediction markets and a sportsbook?
A sportsbook sets odds and takes the other side of your bet. A prediction market is an exchange where prices are set by traders — the price of a contract is the crowd's implied probability, and you can sell before the event resolves.
Where can I bet on March Madness legally?
Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and available in most US states. Polymarket has the widest market menu. Rebet is a mobile-first option in 40 states plus D.C. Always check availability in your state.
When should I buy March Madness contracts?
Prices move with every result. Buying a contender early — before they're a favorite — usually means a lower price and bigger upside if they advance.
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