Duke acceptance rate
Duke's acceptance rate has held near 5–6%. Five-year history, the Early Decision dominance story, and prediction markets we're tracking.
Durham, NC
At a glance
Duke admitted 5.1% of applicants for the Class of 2029 — down from 5.61% for the Class of 2025. Prediction markets on next cycle's rate settle on the No exchange currently lists a market onDuke's acceptance rate — this page is reported data, not odds.At a glance
Duke's acceptance rate is 5.1% for the Class of 2029 — the most recent officially reported figure.
Duke is one of the few top-10s that still talks about its acceptance rate like a normal school.
What is Duke's acceptance rate?
Duke's most recently reported acceptance rate is 5.1% for the Class of 2029. Duke fills roughly half of each class through Early Decision, which structurally pushes the Regular Decision rate well below the headline number.
Five-year history
| Class | Acceptance rate |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.61% |
| 2026 | 5.09% |
| 2027 | ~6.0% |
| 2028 | ~5.7% |
| 2029 | 5.10% |
What's driving the trend
Duke has stopped releasing detailed ED vs RD splits for some recent cycles, which makes the public number harder to compare across years. The structural story is unchanged: ED dominance keeps yield high and admits low.
Prediction markets on Duke
Watchlist: does Duke's headline rate drop below 5%, and does Duke ever return to a single-press-release ED/RD reporting cadence.
Sources & further reading
- IPEDS — Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (opens in a new tab)National Center for Education Statistics
- Common Data Set Initiative (opens in a new tab)Common Data Set Initiative
- U.S. News Best Colleges rankings methodology (opens in a new tab)U.S. News & World Report
Frequently asked questions
What is Duke's acceptance rate?
Duke's most recently reported acceptance rate is 5.1% for the Class of 2029.
Has Duke's acceptance rate been falling?
Over the last five reported cycles, Duke's rate has moved from 5.61% (Class of 2025) to 5.1% (Class of 2029).
Can you bet on Duke's acceptance rate on a prediction market?
No. As of 2026-09-18, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket lists a market on Duke's acceptance rate. The listed college markets today are football and basketball boards plus Kalshi contracts on US News rankings, UC tuition and student debt.
