Harvard acceptance rate
Harvard's acceptance rate hit 3.6% for the Class of 2029. Five-year history, what's driving the decline, and the market on the next number.
Cambridge, MA
At a glance
Harvard admitted 3.6% of applicants for the Class of 2029 — down from 3.39% for the Class of 2025. Prediction markets on next cycle's rate settle on the No exchange currently lists a market onHarvard's acceptance rate — this page is reported data, not odds.At a glance
Harvard's acceptance rate is 3.6% for the Class of 2029 — the most recent officially reported figure.
Will Harvard's Class of 2031 acceptance rate be below 3.5%?
Harvard's acceptance rate for the Class of 2029 was 3.6%. The trend has been steadily downward for a decade, and applications continue to climb. This market asks whether the next reported number crosses below 3.5% — a psychological threshold that would draw national attention.
Harvard's admit rate is the most-screenshotted stat in college admissions, and basically a meme stock at this point.
What is Harvard's acceptance rate?
Harvard's most recently reported acceptance rate is 3.6%, for the Class of 2029 (entering fall 2025). That figure includes both Restrictive Early Action and Regular Decision admits, divided by total applications.
Harvard withheld official admit-rate data for the Class of 2030 — the first time in modern memory — citing a change in admissions communication policy. That gap is the single biggest open question on the prediction markets covering the next reporting cycle.
Five-year acceptance rate history
| Class | Acceptance rate |
|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.39% |
| 2026 | 3.20% |
| 2027 | 3.57% |
| 2028 | 3.59% |
| 2029 | 3.60% |
What's driving the trend
Three forces push the rate down: rising application volume (the Common App makes adding Harvard nearly free), test-optional policies that broadened the applicant pool from roughly 40,000 to 60,000+ in five years, and Harvard's own capacity discipline — the admitted class size has barely moved.
The post-2023 affirmative-action ruling complicated the picture but hasn't visibly moved the headline number; the rate ticked up slightly in 2027 and 2028 before flattening near 3.6%.
Prediction market on the next number
Our watchlist tracks a market on whether Harvard's Class of 2031 acceptance rate falls below 3.5%. It hasn't listed yet on Kalshi or Polymarket — when it does, we'll surface the live odds here. The structural question for traders: does Harvard report at all?
How Harvard reports
The historical pattern is a Harvard Crimson scoop on Ivy Day (typically the last Thursday in March), followed by an official Office of Undergraduate Admissions release. Class of 2030 broke that pattern — no number was published — and prediction markets resolving on Harvard data now have to write explicit N/A rules.
Sources & further reading
- IPEDS — Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (opens in a new tab)National Center for Education Statistics
- Common Data Set Initiative (opens in a new tab)Common Data Set Initiative
- U.S. News Best Colleges rankings methodology (opens in a new tab)U.S. News & World Report
Frequently asked questions
What is Harvard's acceptance rate?
Harvard's most recently reported acceptance rate is 3.6% for the Class of 2029.
Has Harvard's acceptance rate been falling?
Over the last five reported cycles, Harvard's rate has moved from 3.39% (Class of 2025) to 3.6% (Class of 2029).
Can you bet on Harvard's acceptance rate on a prediction market?
No. As of 2026-09-18, neither Kalshi nor Polymarket lists a market on Harvard's acceptance rate. The listed college markets today are football and basketball boards plus Kalshi contracts on US News rankings, UC tuition and student debt.
