Arbitrage
Last reviewed 2026-08-07
Arbitrage — definition
A trade that locks in profit by exploiting price differences between equivalent markets.
Classic arb: same event listed on Kalshi at 0.55 YES and Polymarket at 0.48 YES. Buy the cheap side, sell the dear side, lock in 7¢ minus costs.
Cross-venue arb is hard in practice because of KYC, fees, withdrawal lag, and resolution-source mismatches.
Learn more: Prediction market arbitrage: how it really works
See also
Frequently asked questions
What does arbitrage mean in prediction markets?
A trade that locks in profit by exploiting price differences between equivalent markets.
How does arbitrage work in practice?
Classic arb: same event listed on Kalshi at 0.55 YES and Polymarket at 0.48 YES. Buy the cheap side, sell the dear side, lock in 7¢ minus costs.
Sources & further reading
- CFTC — Event contracts explainedU.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission
- Kalshi — how prices and settlement workKalshi
- UMA Optimistic Oracle documentationUMA Protocol
Last reviewed 2026-08-07 · CollegePredictionMarkets.com