Undefeated Season Odds 2026: Live Perfect Record Market
Published August 18, 2026 · Last updated: September 29, 2026
TL;DR
- The market pays out on any listed team finishing the 2026 regular season without a loss.
- Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Oregon and BYU lead the board, with Ohio State, Georgia, Indiana, Texas, Penn State, Utah, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M and Boise State behind them.
- Perfect seasons are compounding probability: twelve 85% games is only a 14% chance of running the table.
New to this? Read this first
Prediction markets price events in cents, not odds. Here is the vocabulary used on this page, in plain English.
- Price = probability
- A contract that pays $1 trading at 12¢ means the market thinks there's a 12% chance.
- YES / NO share
- YES pays $1 if it happens. NO pays $1 if it doesn't. You can never lose more than you paid.
- Implied chance
- Just the price read as a percentage. A contract at 14¢ implies a 14% chance.
- Vig
- A built-in margin some venues charge. On prediction markets you pay the spread and fees instead.
- Liquidity
- How much money is in the market. More money means you can get in and out at the price you see.
Undefeated season odds are the longshot corner of the 2026 college football board: one contract per team, paying $1 if that team finishes the regular season without a loss. After Week 5 (AP poll of September 27, 2026), listed teams still unbeaten include Texas (4-0, No. 1), Georgia (4-0), Notre Dame (4-0), Miami (4-0), Indiana (4-0), Alabama (4-0), BYU (3-0), Texas Tech (4-0) and Utah (4-0). Ohio State, Oregon, LSU and Boise State have each lost once, so their undefeated contracts are now worth $0.
The math nobody prices correctly
Perfect seasons compound. Win probabilities multiply, they do not average. A team favored in every game at 85% is at 0.8512 ≈ 14% to run the table. Add one 60% road game and it drops near 10%. Add two and you are under 7%. That is why Ohio State can be the national title favorite and still trade around a dime to go undefeated.
Reading the board team by team
Texas Tech and BYU are schedule plays — good rosters without the four-ranked-opponent gauntlet. Notre Dame under Marcus Freeman plays an independent slate it partly controls. Miami with Mario Cristobal and Oregon with Dante Moore have the talent, but each has a road trip that realistically prices near a coin flip.
Indiana under Curt Cignetti is the tempting one after what the program has already proven, while Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M and Penn State all pay the SEC/Big Ten schedule tax. Boise State and Utah round out the deep longshots.
How to read the price
A 5¢ contract is a 5% implied chance and $20 buys 400 shares — $400 back if the team runs the table. Because every team trades separately, you can buy three cheap paths for the price of one favorite, which is how most people actually play this board.
Where to trade these markets
PolymarketDeposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!Widest market menu · iOS appClaim offer → ProphetXTrade $50, Get $75!Sports only · CFTC-regulated · no house marginClaim offer → KalshiTrade $25 and Get $25!US-regulated (CFTC) · 47 states + D.C.Claim offer → Rebet100% purchase match up to $100!Mobile only · code COLLEGEPMClaim offer →
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Check the resolution wording first
The difference between "regular season undefeated" and "undefeated including the conference championship" is enormous — a 12-0 team that loses its title game either pays out or does not, depending on one sentence. Open the market page and read that sentence before you place the order.
The exit that matters
You almost never want to hold an undefeated contract to December. The price climbs steeply with each win — an 8-0 team that started at 8¢ can be trading in the 40s — and selling into that run captures most of the payoff while removing the risk of one November upset zeroing the position. Trade the board on Polymarket.
Pair this with Coach of the Year odds, the top ranked offense market, the national championship board, or the college football markets hub.
Price → probability → payout
Contract price in cents (e.g. 14)Amount you put in ($)- Implied chance
- 14.0%
- Contracts
- 143
- Pays back
- $142.86
- Profit if right
- $122.86
A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. Every contract you buy at this price pays $1 — the cheaper the price, the less likely the market thinks it is.
Your first trade, step by step
- Fund a small balanceOpen an account, verify your ID, and deposit $10–$20 by debit or ACH. You must be 18+ and in an eligible state.
- Find the marketSearch the event by team, player or headline. Check the price and the volume — thin markets move a lot on small orders.
- Read the price as a probabilityA 23¢ YES contract means the market gives it about a 23% chance. If you think it is higher than that, YES is the value side.
- Place a limit orderEnter the price you want rather than taking the market. You buy shares, not a bet slip — the most you can lose is what you paid.
- Decide your exitYou can sell any time before the event resolves, or hold to settlement where each winning share pays $1.
Ready to try it: open Polymarket. 18+, eligible states only. Trade what you can afford to lose.
Sources & further reading
- NCAA.com — AP Top 25, September 27, 2026NCAA
- NCAA — official siteNCAA
- College Football Playoff — official siteCollege Football Playoff
- Polymarket — official sitePolymarket
Related reading
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Frequently asked questions
Which teams are listed in the 2026 undefeated season market?
Polymarket's board includes Texas Tech, Notre Dame, Miami, Oregon, BYU, Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Utah, Boise State, Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M, among others. Each team trades as its own Yes contract, so you can hold several at once.
Why are undefeated season contracts so cheap?
Because probabilities multiply. A team favored in all twelve games at 85% each has only a 14% chance of winning all twelve, and one road trip at 60% cuts that to roughly 10%. That compounding is why even a national title favorite rarely prices above 20% to go perfect.
Does a conference championship game count toward undefeated?
Read the market rules on the event page before you trade — most versions of this market settle on the regular season, which excludes the conference title game and the playoff. That distinction is the single most important detail in the contract, and it is where careless traders lose money.
Which team profile actually goes undefeated?
Not the most talented — the one with the softest path. A strong team from a weaker league with no more than one true road test, like BYU or Texas Tech, has a better shot at 12-0 than an SEC team that plays four ranked opponents. Schedule beats roster in this market.
How should I trade an undefeated contract during the season?
Buy early at longshot prices, then sell into the run rather than holding to resolution. A team at 8¢ preseason that reaches 8-0 can trade at 45¢ or higher, and selling there locks in the gain without needing the last four games to break your way.
What does the price actually mean?
A contract settles at $1 if the event happens and $0 if it doesn't, so the price is the market's probability. A contract at 23¢ means roughly a 23% chance, and $1 buys about 4.3 shares.
How much money do I need to start?
You can place a real trade with $10–$20. Contracts are priced in cents, so a $20 balance buys dozens of shares on a cheap market. Start small until you have seen a position settle.